storm cell
Predicting Electricity Outages Caused by Convective Storms
Tervo, Roope, Karjalainen, Joonas, Jung, Alexander
We consider the problem of predicting power outages in an electrical power grid due to hazards produced by convective storms. These storms produce extreme weather phenomena such as intense wind, tornadoes and lightning over a small area. In this paper, we discuss the application of state-of-the-art machine learning techniques, such as random forest classifiers and deep neural networks, to predict the amount of damage caused by storms. We cast this application as a classification problem where the goal is to classify storm cells into a finite number of classes, each corresponding to a certain amount of expected damage. The classification method use as input features estimates for storm cell location and movement which has to be extracted from the raw data. A main challenge of this application is that the training data is heavily imbalanced as the occurrence of extreme weather events is rare. In order to address this issue, we applied SMOTE technique.
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Scan Strategies for Meteorological Radars
Manfredi, Victoria, Kurose, Jim
We address the problem of adaptive sensor control in dynamic resource-constrained sensor networks. We focus on a meteorological sensing network comprising radars that can perform sector scanning rather than always scanning 360 degrees. We compare three sector scanning strategies. The sit-and-spin strategy always scans 360 degrees. The limited lookahead strategy additionally uses the expected environmental state K decision epochs in the future, as predicted from Kalman filters, in its decision-making. The full lookahead strategy uses all expected future states by casting the problem as a Markov decision process and using reinforcement learning to estimate the optimal scan strategy. We show that the main benefits of using a lookahead strategy are when there are multiple meteorological phenomena in the environment, and when the maximum radius of any phenomenon is sufficiently smaller than the radius of the radars. We also show that there is a trade-off between the average quality with which a phenomenon is scanned and the number of decision epochs before which a phenomenon is rescanned.
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- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Learning Graphical Models > Undirected Networks > Markov Models (0.49)